Oscar Predictions

Well tonight is the big night, which means it is time to post the predictions and see how it goes. Enjoy.

Best Picture:

My Prediction- The Hurt Locker

My Vote- The Hurt Locker

Best Director:

My Prediction- Katheryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)

My Vote- Katheryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)

Best Actor:

My Prediction- Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)

My Vote- Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)

Best Actress:

My Prediction- Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)

My Vote- Meryl Streep (Julie and Julia)

Best Supporting Actor:

My Prediction- Christoph Waltz (Inglorious Bastards)

My Vote- Christoph Waltz (Inglorious Bastards)

Best Supporting Actress:

My Prediction- Mo'Nique (Precious)

My Vote- Mo'Nique (Precious)

Best Original Screenplay:

My Prediction- The Hurt Locker

My Vote- Inglorious Bastards

Best Adapted Screenplay:

My Prediction- Up in the Air

My Vote- Up in the Air

Best Animated Feature:

My Prediction- Up

My Vote- Up

Best Documentary:

My Prediction- The Cove

My Vote- Food Inc.

Best Foreign Language Film:

My Prediction- The White Ribbon

My Vote- Don't Know

Best Cinematography:

My Prediction- The Hurt Locker

My Vote- The Hurt Locker

Best Editing:

My Prediction- The Hurt Locker

My Vote- The Hurt Locker

Best Art Direction:

My Prediction- Avatar

My Vote- Where the Wild Things Are (Not Nominated)

Best Costume Design:

My Prediction- The Young Victoria

My Vote- The Young Victoria

Best Makeup:

My Prediction- Star Trek

My Vote- District 9 (Not Nominated)

Best Original Score:

My Prediction- Up

My Vote- Up

Best Original Song:

My Prediction- The Weary Kind (Crazy Heart)

My Vote- The Weary Kind (Crazy Heart)

Best Visual Effects:

My Prediction- Avatar

My Vote- Avatar

Best Sound Editing:

My Prediction- Avatar

My Vote- Avatar

Best Sound Mixing:

My Prediction- Avatar

My Vote- Avatar

Best Live Action Short:

My Prediction- The Door (Complete Guess)

Best Animated Short:

My Prediction- The Lady and the Reaper (Another Guess)

Best Documentary Short:

My Prediction- The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant (Last Guess)

Final Tally:

The Hurt Locker- 5 Wins

Avatar- 4 Wins

Crazy Heart- 2 Wins

Up- 2 Wins

Inglorious Bastards- 1 Win

Up in the Air- 1 Win

Precious- 1 Win

Blind Side- 1 Win

The Young Victoria- 1 Win

Star Trek- 1 Win

The White Ribbon- 1 Win

The Cove- 1 Win

The Official Nominations (And Thoughts)

Here are the 2009 Oscar Nominees along with how they matched up to my favorites of the year and a few other quick thoughts. Commentary and analysis on each category will follow in the coming weeks. Enjoy.

Best Picture:
-The Hurt Locker
-Up in the Air
-Avatar
-Inglorious Bastards
-Precious
-The Blind Side
-Up
-An Education
-District 9
-A Serious Man

Thoughts- 7 of my top 10 movies made the cut and the only one I am upset about missing is (500) Days of Summer, and the only one I haven't seen is A Serious Man. The decision to move to 10 nominees showed itself in a big way with the inclusion of popular fan favorite The Blind Side, which was widely criticized by critics. District 9 and Up also greatly benefited from the change. The inclusion of a big box office/ fan favorite, a sci-fi action movie and a family friendly animated film all show the Academies desire to try to appeal to a wider audience and hopefully increase the viewership come awards night. While I was a fan of these films, especially Blind Side and Up, I still feel that in a normal year I would not even consider them when talking about a "Best Picture" for the Oscars and feel that in a way the Academy has sold out its prestige and elite status to simply increase public appeal and viewership... but after all everything is about money in today's world isn't it.

Best Director:
-Katheryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
-James Cameron (Avatar)
-Quentin Tarantino (Inglorious Bastards)
-Jason Reitman (Up in the Air)
-Lee Daniels (Precious)

Thoughts: Perfect 5 for 5 here. Let the battle of ex-spouses (Bigelow and Cameron) begin.

Best Actor:
-Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
-George Clooney (Up in the Air)
-Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)
-Morgan Freeman (Invictus)
-Colin Firth (A Single Man)

Thoughts: I was 4 out of 5 in this category with the only difference being Colin Firth instead of Viggo Mortensen. Firth was very good in A Single Man but I disliked the movie so much I think I held that against him. However, Firth is a veteran actor who has had multiple accomplished performances without ever being nominated so it is fitting that he gets some recognition.


Best Actress:
-Meryl Streep (Julie and Julia)
-Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)
-Carey Mulligan (An Education)
-Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)
-Helen Mirren (The Last Station)

Thoughts: Once again I was 4 out of 5 with the difference being Helen Mirren instead of Zooey Deschanel. I have not seen The Last Station yet so I will withhold any commentary about Mirren, but I am sad that one of the most under-appreciated movies of the year (500 Days of Summer) didn't get any recognition.


Best Supporting Actor:
-Christopher Waltz (Inglorious Bastards)
-Matt Damon (Invictus)
-Woody Harrelson (The Messenger)
-Christopher Plummer (The Last Station)
-Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones)

Thoughts: This was by far my worst category as I only got 1 right (but he will be the winner). The biggest reason is I have not seen 3 of the movies (The Last Station, The Messenger, The Lovely Bones). The only one I am upset about here is the snub of Anthony Mackie from the Hurt Locker whose performance and chemistry with Renner's character was vital to the overall success of the movie. I kind of figured Damon would show up here but I really felt his performance in Invictus was basic and unmemorable as I can think of multiple movies where I thought he was much better.


Best Supporting Actress:
-Mo'Nique (Precious)
-Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air)
-Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air)
-Penelope Cruz (Nine)
-Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart)

Thoughts: I got 3 out of 5 here and I have no real complaints. I would have preferred to see Cotillard instead of Cruz from Nine as I thought she had the more difficult role and was my favorite character in the movie, but Cruz was very good as well. I am glad Gyllenhaal was nominated here as she was very good in Crazy Heart opposite Jeff Bridges. My last choice that didn't make it (Laurent from Inglorious Bastards) was probably most hurt by category confusion as some people considered her a lead and not supporting.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
-Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner (Up in the Air)
-Geoffrey Fletcher (Precious)
-Nick Hornby (An Education)
-Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell (District 9)
-Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci and Tony Roche (In the Loop)

Thoughts: 3 out of 5 here. Another big disappointment for me here is the exclusion of Where the Wild Things Are which I thought was an awesome adaptation. Jonze took a 12 page children's book and developed a story that was both beautiful in its simplicity and breathtaking in its creativity. District 9 is an ok choice and I didn't see In the Loop.


Best Original Screenplay:
-Mark Boal (The Hurt Locker)
-Quentin Tarantino (Inglorious Bastards)
-Bob Peterson and Pete Docter (Up)
-Joel and Ethan Coen (A Serious Man)
-Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman (The Messenger)

Thoughts: 3 out of 5 here. Hurt Locker, Inglorious Bastards and Up were all locks, and I haven't seen A Serious Man or The Messenger. I am actually pretty glad that Avatar didn't make the cut here because the screenplay was the obvious weak link in that movie (How many memorable lines do you remember from it?... Yeah that's what I thought). It also is bad news to all the Avatar fans for its chances of winning Best Picture. Once again I am disappointed that 500 Days of Summer didn't make the cut here because this was its best shot and most deserved.

Best Editing:
-The Hurt Locker
-Avatar
-Inglorious Bastards
-Precious
-Star Trek

Thoughts: 4 out of 5. Missed Up in the Air for Star Trek which is a very interesting upset considering that a film has not won Best Picture without a Best Editing nomination since 1980, which paints a pretty bleak picture for Up in the Air's chances of winning the big one.


Best Cinematography:
-The Hurt Locker
-Avatar
-Inglorious Bastards
-Harry Potter: The Half-Blood Prince
-The White Ribbon

Thoughts: 3 out of 5. Harry Potter is a joke in this category as far as I am concerned, especially over Where the Wild Things Are and The Road which were both beautifully shot. I need to see The White Ribbon which is nominated in the Best Foreign Picture Category and looks very interestingly shot in black and white.

Best Art Direction:
-Nine
-The Young Victoria
-Avatar
-Sherlock Holmes
-The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus

Thoughts: 3 out of 5 here with another snub for Where the Wild Things Are. Sherlock Holmes is a good pick and I haven't seen The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus.


Best Costume Design:

-The Young Victoria

-Nine

-The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus

-Bright Star

-Coco Avant Chanel

Thoughts: The Young Victoria and Nine were no-brainers. I have not seen the other 3 but they all seem to make sense... A surreal adventure, a period piece, and a movie about a fashion icon.

Best Makeup:

-Star Trek

-The Young Victoria

-Il Divo

Thoughts: Star Trek was obvious, but I can not believe that after all the love District 9 got that it did not get this nomination. The Young Victoria doesn't make much sense to me here because makeup did not appear to play that great of a role in shaping that movie, and I have no idea what Il Divo even is.

Best Sound Editing:

-Avatar

-The Hurt Locker

-Star Trek

-Up

-Inglorious Bastards

Thoughts: Avatar wins in a landslide is pretty much all you need to know about these next 3 categories.

Best Sound Mixing:

-Avatar

-The Hurt Locker

-Star Trek

-Inglorious Bastards

-Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Thoughts: Avatar wins again... As much as I liked the first Transformers, this sequel was horrible.

Best Visual Effects:

-Avatar

-District 9

-Star Trek

Thoughts: The obvious 3 choices, but once again Avatar wins hands down.

Best Score:

-Up

-Avatar

-Fantastic Mr. Fox

-The Hurt Locker

-Sherlock Holmes

Thoughts: This category is not my strong suite. Very happy to see The Hurt Locker in this category (A suggestion as to its Best Picture chances). Up should win this category.

Best Song:

-The Weary Kind (Crazy Heart)

-Take It All (Nine)

-Almost There (The Princess and the Frog)

-Down in New Orleans (The Princess and the Frog)

-Paris 36 (Loin de Paname)

Thoughts: Absolutely loved The Weary Kind. Beautiful heartfelt song that should run away with this category. Disney back in the mix with 2 nominations. Can't believe that Take it All made it over Cinema Italiano from Nine (Thought both of them would make it). No idea what Paris 36 or the movie Loin de Paname is.

Best Animated:

-Up

-The Fantastic Mr. Fox

-Coraline

-The Princess and The Frog

-The Secret of Kells

Thoughts: Only saw Up, but pretty confident that will be the winner, even with the popularity of The Fantastic Mr. Fox.

Best Foreign:

-The White Ribbon (Germany)

-A Prophet (France)

-Ajami (Israel)

-The Milk of Sorrow (Peru)

-The Secret in Their Eyes (Argentina)

Thoughts: Have not had the chance to see any of these yet, but I have heard great things about A Prophet and especially about The White Ribbon.

Best Documentary:

-The Cove

-Food Inc.

-Which Way Home

-Burma VJ

-The Most Dangerous Man in America

Thoughts: I thought The Cove was very good and considering what the filmmakers went through to shoot that movie they will probably win.

Best Shorts (Live Action, Animated, Documentary)

-Nobody knows or cares.

Movies on my list to see before Oscar night:

-A Serious Man

-The Messengers

-The Last Station

-The Lovely Bones

-In The Loop

-The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus

-The White Ribbon

-A Prophet

My Awards (Screenplays and Techs)

Screenplay Categories:

Best Original Screenplay:
1. Mark Boal (The Hurt Locker)
2. Bob Peterson and Pete Docter (Up)
3. Quentin Tarantino (Inglorious Bastards)
4. James Cameron (Avatar)
5. Scott Neustadter and Michael Weber (500 Days of Summer)

My Winner- Mark Boal (The Hurt Locker)


Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner (Up in the Air)
2. Spike Jonze and Dave Eggers (Where the Wild Things Are)
3. Geoffrey Fletcher (Precious)
4. Anthony Peckham (Invictus)
5. Nick Hornby (An Education)

My Winner- Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner (Up in the Air)


Tech Categories:

Best Editing:
1. The Hurt Locker
2. Up in the Air
3. Avatar
4. Inglorious Bastards
5. Precious

My Winner- The Hurt Locker


Best Cinematography:
1. The Hurt Locker
2. Avatar
3. Where the Wild Things Are
4. Inglorious Bastards
5. The Road

My Winner- The Hurt Locker


Best Art Direction:
1. Nine
2. Where the Wild Things Are
3. The Young Victoria
4. Inglorious Bastards
5. Avatar

My Winner- Nine


Best Costume Design:
1. The Young Victoria
2. Nine
3. Public Enemies
4. Where the Wild Things Are
5. Inglorious Bastards

My Winner- The Young Victoria


Best Makeup:
1. District 9
2. Star Trek
3. Watchmen

My Winner- District 9


Best Sound Editing:
1. Avatar
2. Star Trek
3. Up
4. Public Enemies
5. The Hurt Locker

My Winner- Avatar


Best Sound Mixing:
1. Avatar
2. Star Trek
3. The Hurt Locker
4. Up
5. Public Enemies

My Winner- Avatar


Best Visual Effects:
1. Avatar
2. Star Trek
3. District 9

My Winner- Avatar

My Awards (Directing and Acting Categories)

Best Director:

1. Katherine Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
2. James Cameron (Avatar)
3. Quentin Tarantino (Inglorious Bastards)
4. Jason Reitman (Up in the Air)
5. Lee Daniels (Precious)

My Winner- Katherine Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)

Best Actor:

1. Jeff Bridges as washed-up country singer Bad Blake (Crazy Heart)
2. George Clooney as corporate jet-setter Ryan Bingham (Up in the Air)
3. Jeremy Renner as U.S Army bomb squad SFC William James (The Hurt Locker)
4. Viggo Mortensen as the post-apocolyptic wanderer protecting his son (The Road)
5. Morgan Freeman as South African President Nelson Mandela (Invictus)

My Winner- Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)

Best Actress:

1. Meryl Streep as cooking legend Julia Childs (Julie and Julia)
2. Sandra Bullock as adoptive mother Leigh Anne Tuohy (The Blind Side)
3. Carey Mulligan as coming of age British girl Jenny Mellor (An Education)
4. Zooey Deschanel as endearing and quirky girlfriend Summer Finn (500 Days of Summer)
5. Gabourey Sidibe as heartbreaking inner-city mother Precious Jones (Precious)

My Winner- Meryl Streep (Julie and Julia)

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Christopher Waltz as chilling and intelligent German SS Col. Hans Landa (Inglorious Bastards)
2. Anthony Mackie as U. S Army bomb squad Sgt. JT Sanborn (The Hurt Locker)
3. Peter Saarsgard as cultural romantic love interest David Goldman (An Education)
4. Jackie Earl Haley as the morally questionable masked protector Rorschach (Watchmen)
5. Alfred Molina as socially awkward and overprotective father Jack Mellor (An Education)

My Winner- Christopher Waltz (Inglorious Basterds)

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Mo'Nique as mentally and physically abusive mother Mary Jones (Precious)
2. Vera Farmiga as career woman and love interest Alex Goran (Up in the Air)
3. Anna Kendrick as recent college grad trying to make a splash in the corporate world Natalie Keener (Up in the Air)
4. Melanie Laurent as Jewish movie theatre owner set on revenge Shoshanna (Inglorious Bastards)
5. Marrion Cotillard as lonely and betrayed wife Luisa Contini (Nine)

My Winner- Mo'Nique (Precious)

My Awards

To open things back up I have decided to run down the list of my choices for Oscars. We will know the actual nominations on Tuesday and I will spend the rest of the month breaking down those categories, but for right now these nominations are purely the movies I think deserve recognition.

Best Picture:

Note- This year the Oscars have decided to include 10 films in this category instead of the traditional 5. In my opinion this is a terrible decision that is purely motivated by TV ratings in an attempt to include more "mainstream" and "popular" movies that the producers are hoping will convince viewers who normally would not be interested to tune in. My logic tells me that just because somebodies favorite movie is nominated for best picture with no chance of winning, that fact alone is not going to convince them to watch if they were not planning to anyway. This is one case where I think more is not necessarily better. In the past it was considered an honor just to be nominated and I have a feeling that some of the nominees this year not fit that bill as there were not 10 "great" movies this year. The interesting wrinkle that this does provide is trying to figure out how the academy will fill those extra 5 spots. Will they simply include what they consider to be the next 5 best movies? I don't think that will be the case. It is my hunch that the academy will use their extra 5 slots to incorporate movies they feel will most entice average moviegoers to tune in. In other words this change is brought on by the perceived huge loss of viewers last year because The Dark Knight was not nominated. Keeping that in mind I would not be surprised to see some very interesting nominees this year ie. (The Hangover anyone?). Anyways back to my nominations. Remember these are not my predictions for what will be nominated, they are simply what I would nominate.

1. The Hurt Locker

2.Up in the Air

3. Avatar

4. Inglorious Bastards

5. (500) Days of Summer

6. Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire

7. The Blind Side

8. Up

9. Where the Wild Things Are

10. Nine

My Winner- The Hurt Locker

-Commentary on these films will be available with the discussions following the actual nominations.

Oscar Time (Grand Re-Opening)

Well its that time of year again. January has come to a close and the Oscars are a month away. I realize I faded off on my ramblings over the past year, but I am ready to pick it up again and keep one of my new year's resolutions which is to stay up to date with this blog for the whole year. I figure there is no better time than right now to make that happen. The Oscar nominee announcements will be this Tuesday (Feb 2), so I think the best way to kick this off will be with my Oscar nominations. 2009 was a decent year for film with several standout great movies along with a slew of mediocre work. All in all I saw 54 movies this year and I still have a few I want to see before the big night, so I am reserving the right to change of few of my nominations but feel pretty certain there won't be any changes at the top. With all that said its time to get rolling. As always I appreciate feedback (positive or negative), comments, and suggestions. Enjoy!